Global macro overview for 04/05/2017:
In yesterday's statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained a positive hawkish tone, pointing to a steady strengthening of the labor market, and solid consumption growth fundamentals. This is why the FED maintained its target for federal reserve rates at 0.75-1.00 percent as expected. It was noted that the Committee's assessment of the slowdown in the first quarter was likely to be temporary. The decision was unanimous. In conclusion, the FED ignored some weaker data from the economy and still leaves the open road for further rate hikes. In the meantime, the implied probability of the next rate hike in June increased to 73% according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the H4 timeframe. After the FOMC statement, the market tried to rally towards the technical resistance at the level of 99.72, but it was capped at the level of 99.46 and reversed. No new low was made, but the gap wasn't filled either. The momentum is still pointing slightly to the upside and the stochastic oscillator is still not in the overbought zone. No divergence is seen as well, so the bias is slightly positioned to the upside as long as the technical support at the level of 98.68 holds the line.
