Trading plan for 10/05/2017:
The Dollar is losing its value against other G-10 currencies today. EUR/USD is struggling to return above 1.09, USD/JPY has been pushed back at 114.00, which was conducive to information on plans for further North Korea's nuclear missions. The API report showed a significant decrease in oil inventories. The WTI has risen today by over 0.5%. After Wall Street records, trading sentiment was positive during the Asian session.
On Wednesday 10th of May, the event calendar will be busy with important economic releases like Industrial Production data from Italy and France, ECB President Mario Draghi speech in the Dutch parliament, crude oil inventories and interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
EUR/USD analysis for 10/05/2017:
The Industrial Production data from Italy and France is scheduled for release at 06:45 am GMT and market participants expect an increase in production in France from -1.6% to 1.25 for the reported month and decrease in production in Italy from 1.0% to 0.3% for the reported month. If the projection is right, then the French output will expand in monthly terms for the first time this year. The question remains whether the problems in Italy are just a correction or not only a banking industry is digging in more trouble. Mario Draghi's speech in the Dutch parliament might provide further clues regarding the ECB monetary policy and QE extension.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market has broken below the golden trend line support and now is trading close to the important technical support at the level of 1.0851. Any violation of this level would lead to an immediate test of the level of 1.0820 and a possible gap fill. There is no divergence visible yet and the market will get close to the oversold conditions soon.
NZD/USD analysis for 10/05/2017:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and statement are scheduled for release at 09:00 pm GMT. Market participants expect the RBNZ to leave the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.75%, which will still be the highest interest rate among all major central banks all over the world.
Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The price is trading inside of a tight range between the levels of 0.6879 - 0.6946, just around all major moving averages. If the RBNZ will leave the interest rate unchanged, then NZD/USD should rally higher towards the next technical resistance at the levels of 0.6969 and 0.6981. On the other hand, an unexpected interest rate cut would result in immediate sell-off towards the level of 0.6838 and below.
Market snapshot: Crude Oil is still trading in a range, waiting for data?
After yesterday's API inventories data that reported a 5.79 million barrels decrease in stockpiles, which exceeded greatly the consensus of an almost 1.8 million barrels decrease. The 4.16 million drawdown was seen last week. Oil prices have hardly responded to such statistics. The market is still trading below the key resistance at the level of $47.10 - $47.29. Maybe today's inventories data will trigger some movement towards one of the important levels.
