Global macro overview for 06/06/2017:
The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5%. In the statement released after the decision, the RBA delivered a very neutral message. The key quotes from the statement were: "economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 percent" and "quarter-to-quarter variation in the growth figures" and both of them were referring to the Australian GDP outlook. The RBA has acknowledged the weak commodity prices and the slower growth picture for the first quarter but reaffirmed the Bank's positive growth outlook, mainly on the back of the mining investment upturn, improving business conditions, tightening capacity utilization, and picking up business investment. Nevertheless, the comments on the labour market are less positive and confident. The job market indicators are still mixed and growth in wages is also not picking up fast enough. The housing market, the barometer of the RBA, has become expensive, but there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease, so no panic here.
In conclusion, a very neutral statement with no explicit policy bias was issued, giving no forward guidance. The RBA is still maintaining its path outlined in the previous statements and no big changes have been made so far.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market did pop modestly higher on the policy meeting outcome, unwinding the weakness seen earlier in the day on the disappointing net export contribution to Q1 GDP, but quickly got back to the trading range. The next support is seen at the level of 0.7455 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 0.7509.
