Global macro overview for 22/06/2017:
The Crude Oil Inventories data have revealed bigger than expected draw in the stockpiles. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data recorded an inventory draw of 2,451k barrels for the week ending June 16th following a draw of 1,660k barrels in the previous week while consensus was made for a draw of around 1,200k barrels. So oil prices have been in a downward spiral for the third day in a row, being badly affected by weekly oil stock updates in the United States. Yesterday, WTI was heading for $42.00.
Sentiment on the oil market has reversed by 180 degrees. At the beginning of the year, the market was too optimistic about the prospects of quickly erasing gigantic oversupply and limiting inventories following the November OPEC agreement. Since then, convincing beliefs have certainly changed into unequivocal skepticism despite OPEC's strict discipline and respect for its production quotas. Nevertheless, the oil production is still on the rise and the good example here is oil drilling in Norway (highest since 2011), with oil inventories on tankers rising and already exceeding 110 million barrels. In the US, the Baker Hughes Rig Count shows the biggest amount of active oil drilling rigs since 2015.
In conclusion, the sentiment on the energy commodity market remains negative for the time being and the space to deepen the price of crude oil and brent oil is still big. The price might even reach the lows from 2016 at $39. If the supply glut keeps rising despite the OPEC and non-OPEC members efforts, it might hit the lows of $26 from the end of 2015.
Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the H4 time frame. Despite the bullish efforts, the momentum is unable to break out above the fifty level and the bearish pressure is growing. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $43.74 and the next technical support is seen at the level of $42.01. Please notice the oversold market conditions might indicate a bounce is coming soon.
