Trading plan for 15/06/2017:
After yesterday's interest rate hike by the Fed, the US dollar is gaining across the board. EUR/USD is breaking below the intraday trendline at 1.1190, USD/CHF is trying to break out above 0.9730 resistance and USD/JPY is trading around the level of 109.50. During the overnight Asian session, the indices closed lower with Nikkei at 0.27%. Gold is not performing well too, it lost 0.86% after yesterday's sell-off.
On Thursday 15th of June, the event calendar will be heavy with data releases that include two more interest rate decisions. One will be delivered from Swiss National Bank and the second one from the Bank of England. Moreover, later in the day another set of economic data from the US will be released that include Unemployment Claims and Industrial Production data.
Analysis GBP/USD for 15/06/2017:
The Bank of England interest rate decision and monetary policy summary is scheduled for release at 11:00 am GMT. Market participants expect that the BoE will leave the interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.25% together with asset purchase facility at 435bln. No surprise is expected here, so let's take a look at another important data release from the UK - the Retail Sales with Auto Fuel that are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT. Global investors expect sales to decrease significantly from 2.3% to -0.9% in the reported month. The possible reason for this is a continued slide in inflation-adjusted wages, highlighting a risk factor for the economy in the months ahead. The average wages increased only 2.1% on yearly basis, which is below 2.7% inflation level, the biggest slide since August 2014. This will, of course, affect consumer spending which is sliding in annual terms already. Moreover, previously released sentiment data also point to weaker consumer spending.
If the expectation meets the consensus or if the data will get worse than expected and the BoE will not hike the interest rates, the British pound might face a tough day today. GBP/USD had started to slide after the FOMC decision yesterday and now it is hanging just above the technical support 1.2722. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2707, but the most important one is the level of 1.2633 which is just above the 61%Fibo support. Any breakout lower will result in a more aggressive sell-off towards the level of 1.2514. However, if bulls want to regain the control over this market, they must break above the technical resistance at 1.2818.
Market Snapshot: Gold price is deteriorating further
After making a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe chart at $1,296, gold prices slid towards the next technical support at the level of $1,258. Moreover, after the yesterday's FOMC interest rate hike, the down candle closed at its lows at $1,261. The trading conditions are overbought and the momentum indicator is below the fifty level, pointing down. In this situation, any breakout below yesterday's low at the level of $1,257 will result in an immediate sell-off towards the next technical support at $1,246.
Market Snapshot: Crude Oil is trading close to last month's lows
Crude oil prices fell yesterday on the back of the inventories data, and currently the commodity is trading below the technical support from the level of $45.21. The trendline still provides the dynamic resistnace for the price despite oversold market conditions. The next support is seen at the May's lows at the level of $43.74.
