Global macro overview for 24/07/2017:
Today's OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Petersburg will not likely result in an agreement to reduce production. Six ministers will gather to discuss compliance with May's output-cut deal, as well as the market outlook. The issue of growing production in Libya and Nigeria is still not resolved, in countries where (due to mining below historical norms) no limits have been imposed in May. Since then, however, both countries have increased production levels significantly, undermining efforts by the rest of the OPEC members to limit the oil supply and rebalance the market. Even less are the chances that Saudi Arabia will propose a unilateral and voluntary reduction in the supply of crude oil. The seasonal drop in stockpiles in the summer months is an absolutely typical thing. In this light, investors should turn their attention back to growing oil mining activity in the US and, apparently, weaker compliance with the end of last year.
The market participants should focus on the news regarding the possibility of an agreement between the OPEC and Lybia and Nigeria, or whether OPEC can find a way to offset that overproduction by imposing more reductions elsewhere. If this scenario will turn out to be correct, the Canadian Dollar will be in the corrective phase of the last major strengthening, which moved the USD/CAD down to the long-term technical support of just above 1.2500 level. Nevertheless, there is still a chance for the price to test the muli-month technical support at the level of 1.2456 before any meaningful correction occurs.
