Trading plan for 24/07/2017:
No important weekend developments resulted in a quiet start of the trading week. EUR/USD is still over 1.1670, USD/JPY violated 111.00 level and GBP/USD has returned above 1.3000 level after the reports from the British political scene indicating a lower risk of uncontrolled Brexit. Before the OPEC meeting, crude oil is stable and priced at $45.80. On the Asian stock exchanges mixed moods prevail. The Nikkei 225 falls 0.5%, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up 0.5%. S&P500 futures are below 2,465 point and slide 0.2%.
On Monday 24th of July, the event calendar is busy with important economic releases. During the London session, global investors will pay attention to flash PMIs from the Eurozone, Germany, and France. Later, during the US session, Canada will provide the wholesales sales data and another round of flash PMIs from the US will be provided.
EUR/USD analysis for 24/07/2017:
A bunch of flash PMIs data from the Eurozone, Germany, and France is scheduled for release from 07:00 am to 08:00 am GMT. Market participants are expecting that today's PMI survey data will continue to support moderate growth in the Eurozone at the start of the third quarter. The Flash Composite PMI is expected at the level of 56.2 and if it meets expectations, then the index will post its seventh straight reading above 56 – an upbeat trend that points to an economic recovery that's likely to carry over into the second half of the year. As a result, the GDP forecasts for the next quarter might be revised a little bit higher and current estimates are around 1.9% this year from a previous estimate of 1.7%. Despite the upbeat data, the ECB Governing Council did not decide to hike the interest rate, mostly because of a lack of the inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, better than expected data should support the positive mood around the euro currency across the board.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market almost hit the important multi-month technical resistance at the level of 1.1715 and it looks like it will first test the 1.1583 support. The clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports this view. Nevertheless, this pullback is considered as corrective and the bigger timeframe trend is still up.
Market Snapshot: DAX30 is about to close the gap
The price of German stock index DAX30 trades below 50 and 100 days moving averages and it is about to close the gap between the level of 12,093 - 12,302. Nevertheless, the more important technical support is seen at the level of 11,886, so as long as this level is not clearly violated, the bigger time frame trend is still up.
Market Snapshot: USD/CHF at the multi-month lows
The price of USD/CHF has broken below all of the technical support levels and now has hit the multi-moth lows at the level of 0.9442. This pair is very susceptible to a bounce or a correction as the daily momentum oscillator clearly shows bullish divergence. The next techcnial resistnace is seen at the level of 0.9521 and 0.9550.
