Global macro overview for 22/08/2017:
The Canadian wholesale sales declined in June as inventories rose. According to Statistics Canada, the Wholesale Sales fell 0.5% over the course of June, missing expectations for a 0.6% gain after an upwardly revised 1.0% rise in the prior month. In real terms, sales declined 0.7% to give a 6.3% annual increase. For the second quarter, sales rose 2.5% with a 1.7% gain in real terms.The biggest decline was noted in food and drink sector (1.0%), but the overall fall was seen in five of the seven sub-sectors anyway. Inventories rose 0.6% on the month and have increased in ten of the last eleven months with the inventory/sales ratio rising to 1.30 from 1.28 previously.
Changes in Wholesale Sales can be used as an early indicator for the overall direction of the retail sector, consumption, and the economy. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada will likely remain confident of a robust economic growth despite the weaker-than-expected data. Economists suggested the weak report was unlikely to cause concerns because only one monthly decline was registered. Moreover, both retail and wholesale sales revealed generally strong growth momentum in previous months.The doubts might increase if the slide persists over the next few months, especially in the housing sector, because it might start to have a negative impact on wider consumer spending trends. In the current situation, the low unemployment rate, high GDP projections, and the inflationary pressures are still supporting the Bank of Canada's intention for one more rate hike in October. This will likely result in a broader appreciation of the Canadian dollar across the board.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/CAD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. Bears have managed to retrace 50% of the previous swing up and stopped at the level of 1.4729. Currently, the price is trying to bounce from the oversold market conditions, but the technical resistance at the level of 1.4877 remains a tough nut to crack so far.
