Global macro overview for 07/09/2017:
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was better than last month but did not meet investors' expectations. The number released yesterday was at the level of 55.3 points, which was better than 53.9 points a month ago but worse than 55.8 points expected by market participants. The ISM data reflect business conditions in non-manufacturing industries based on measures of employment trends, prices, and new orders.
Other news from the US was not that much straightforward. Information that Fed's Vice President Stanley Fischer will resign in mid-October was badly received, as he offered Trump an additional place of appointment in the Fed, and the US president enjoys a mild monetary policy. It was a small consolation to speculate that Gary Cohn's chances of replacing Yellen (who recently criticized the President) fell, but it is still unknown whom Trump will choose in return. On the other hand, the agreement between the President and the Democrats on raising the fiscal debt limit until December was a positive surprise, and the lawsuit was linked to Hurricane Harvey's rescue package. As a result, the risk of freezing public administration work has been diminished, but the battle in Congress will resume at the end of the year. Without political risk, but with continued uncertainty regarding the future of the conflict with North Korea and the uncertainty around the Fed's December interest rate decision, the US dollar position has not changed significantly and investors will not rush to buy it now.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The golden trend line remains the main dynamic resistance for the price as the market deteriorates further towards the technical support at the level of 91.93. A breakout below this level will open the road towards the next lower low at the level of 91.63.
