Global macro overview for 14/09/2017:
The better than expected data from the Australian job market contributed to strengthening of the AUD on Wednesday morning. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the country's unemployment rate remained at the 5.6% level in line with expectations. Moreover, the job market added 54.2k new positions in August, while analysts anticipated only a 17.4k gain. It was the sixth straight month of gains as employers continued to add payrolls at a faster pace. The number of full-time jobs rose by over 40k, following a revised drop of 19k the month before, part-time jobs by rose by 14k.
The Australian economy is still far to reach full employment, with the main concern being low wage growth, which refrains consumer confidence. The recent statements from Reserve Bank of Australia member Ian Harper have limited the hawkish enthusiasm represented by Governor Philip Lowe. Harper stated that domestic growth remained too weak for a near-term interest rate rise.Nevertheless, the recent set of data might well increase speculations that record-low Australian interest rates may be lifted sooner than the end of 2018, which is when futures markets currently suspect that a move will come.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had deteriorated recently from the multi-month highs at the level of 0.8125 and now is back in the congestion zone. Nevertheless, as long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated (around 61% Fibo support at 0.7928) the short-term outlook remains bullish.
