Global macro overview for 22/09/2017:
A strong market reaction was triggered by the publication of the minutes of Swedish Riksbank's latest meeting minutes (6 September), which raised concerns about the growing risk of overheating of the Swedish economy. The policymakers have warmly adopted a clear improvement in inflationary trends disturbed by the impact of temporary factors. Cecilia Skingsley, Deputy Governor of the Riksbank, decided to hit the dovish tone. In her opinion, the sudden abandonment of quantitative loosening will lead to a wide spectrum of side effects, which will translate into a sharp deterioration of the economic outlook.
At the last meeting, the Executive Board of the Riksbank decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at –0.50%. The first rate increase is expected to occur in mid-2018, which is the same assessment as in the Monetary Policy Report in July. The purchases of government bonds will continue during the second half of 2017, as decided by the Executive Board in April.
Let's now take a look at the USD/SEK technical picture on the H1 time frame after the news was published. Over the course of the day, the Swedish Crown gained 0.5% to the Dollar, but the spike up was short-lived and currently, the market has retraced most of the yesterday's gains. The key level for bulls is the technical support at the level of 7.9335, the market conditions look oversold at the time frame, so a bounce might be expected towards the level of 7.9620. Nevertheless, the larger time frame trend remains bearish.
