EUR/USD has been impulsively bearish yesterday after the ECB Press conference had postponed the tapering. After months of hawkish events of Euro, the currency has gained quite well against USD recently which is currently expected to lose some grounds in the coming days. Today EUR German Retail Sales report is expected show a growth to 0.5% from the previous negative value of -0.2%, German Prelim CPI is expected to show growth as well which previously was at 0.1%, Spanish Flash CPI report is expected to show slight decrease to 1.7% from the previous value of 1.8% and Spanish Flash GDP is also expected to publish with slight decrease to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.9%. On the USD side, today Core PCE Price Index report will be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to be published with significant growth to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.1% and Personal Income is also expected to show rise to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to be quite positive with the economic reports where EUR is expected to be negative which is expected to push the price lower in the coming days. This week is going to be quite volatile as USD FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate report, Non-Farm Payroll, Average Cash Earnings, and Unemployment Rate reports are going to be published which are expected to show positive results on average. To sum up, USD is expected to gain momentum against EUR in the coming days which may lead to further bearish pressure in the pair taking the price much lower in future.
Now let us look at the technical view, price has been impulsively bearish recently which lead to break below the 1.1660 support level whereas dynamic level is quite downward sloping as well. As of the current situation, price is expected to show some bullish move towards 1.1660 or at most towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA before showing some bullish rejections and showing some bearish momentum with target towards 1.1550 in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1850 resistance area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
