Global macro overview for 05/10/2017:
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data has beaten market expectations. Global investors expected a decrease from 228k last month to 131k, but the score revealed was at the level of 135k. Moreover, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI has been beyond expectations as well, delivering a strong reading at the level of 59.8 points after a drop to 55.3 points a month ago (55.5 was the expected figure).
The latest trend update for private employment growth reflects a healthy advance, even if Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hurt the job market in September. The annual trend in the latest ADP figures support the positive outlook for the job market in the US. Despite the weakness in growth last month, private employment still managed to rise by nearly 2.0% for the year through September. That's at the low end of the year-over-year figures since May, but it's moderately above the range for the 12 months through this past April. Nevertheless, the ADP collects data from customers who only account for one-fifth of the workforce in the US economy.
In conclusion, data from the US are subject to hurricane impact and paradoxically statistical noise works both ways. Worse data will be underestimated as they will reflect hurricane damage and better than expected data are meant to be a sign of the restoration work started. The wait-and-see approach seems to be the best strategy for all macro traders at present.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading in a narrow zone between the levels of 93.20 - 93.63, but the momentum indicator is still just above its fifty level. Nevertheless, the key level to the upside is still at the level of 94.14.
