Global macro overview for 17/10/2017:
According to the Minutes, the RBA members noted that the Australian economy had grown by 0.8% in the June quarter, in line with the Bank's forecast. Growth in consumption and the contribution from net exports had been higher than in the March quarter, partly reflecting the unwinding of temporary factors. Moreover, members noted that the effect of the decline in mining investment had mostly passed and, with resource exports increasing, recently the mining sector had been contributing to overall growth. Growth in public demand and non-mining business investment had picked up and private sector investment intentions for 2017/18, as recorded in the June quarter ABS capital expenditure survey, had been revised higher. The household consumption has picked-up despite ongoing weakness in household disposable income growth. Both full-time and part-time employment had recorded solid growth in August.
On the international front, indicators of global economic conditions had remained consistent with growth continuing around recent rates. Exports of electronics and conditions in the electronics-manufacturing sector had increased significantly. In China, growth in output appeared to have moderated a little in recent months following stronger-than-expected growth in the first half of 2017.
The financial market developments indicated that long-term government bond yields had generally increased over the previous month. The FOMC announced it would begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and RBA members noted that economic conditions internationally and domestically had been more positive since 2016, nevertheless, financial market pricing suggested that policy rates were expected to remain low for some time. Moves towards higher interest rates in other economies were a welcome development but did not have mechanical implications for the setting of policy in Australia, where the timing of any changes in interest rates would be dependent on developments in domestic economic conditions. The RBA Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The meeting minutes did not bring anything completely new and radical, so the AUD did not react strongly to the news. After the rejection of the 61% Fibo at the level of 0.7900, the price declined towards the level of 0.7833. The overall market conditions are overbought, so there is still a possible test of the lower support at the level of 0.7807. Daily time frame trend remains up.
