Trading plan for 04/10/2017:
After publication of the Bloomberg article (the list of prospects for the new Fed chairman was closed to four people), the US dollar was sold out across the board, although the reaction was brief. EUR/USD jumped to 1.11780, USD/JPY decreased to 112.50. The most profitable are AUD and NZD. The stock market can be seen stopping at the current elevated levels. The Nikkei remains unchanged, but Hang Seng is up 0.6%.
On Wednesday 4th of October, the event calendar will be quite busy with important news releases. During the London session, the set of PMI Services data from across the Eurozone will be released, including the UK. During the US session, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, PMI Composite and Final Services PMI data will be released. Later on, there is a scheduled speech from ECB President Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen.
EUR/USD analysis for 04/10/2017:
The set of PMI Services data from across the Eurozone is scheduled for release all morning. The most important will be data from France, Germany, and EU. Market participants are still in the positive mood and do not expect any downside surprises this month. Much more interesting data will be released during the afternoon the US session - a series of data that may be a clue before Friday's NFP report (ADP report, ISM for the service sector). The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to decrease from 231k to 131k which is very significant change, that might be taken into account before NFP report. On the other hand, the ISM Services data are expected to stay almost unchanged at the level of 55.5 points.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. This pair will be under influence of today's data, so the volatility might be increased all day. So far the price is trading around the level of 1.1775, which is in the middle of the recent price range. In case of a better than expected data, the nearest technical resistance is the zone between the levels of 1.1821 - 1.1847. The most important support remains at the level of 1.1614.
Market Snapshot: AUD/USD breaks out from the rising wedge pattern
The price of AUD/USD has broken out from the rising wedge pattern around the level of 0.7808 and tested the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.7867. Nevertheless, the price is still trading below the 50 and 100 moving averages and the recent shooting star candlestick pattern might suggest a temporary reversal towards the level of 0.7825.
Market Snapshot: DAX close to the swing highs
The price of German DAX30 is trading close to the recent swing highs on a daily time frame chart. The market gapped up to the level of 12896 and it is only 60 points away from the swing high at 12953.The trading conditions are extremely overbought, so a possibility of a double top formation is very high. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 12841.
