Trading plan for 19/10/2017:
The overnight trading was again without major changes. EUR/USD is holding around 1.1800, USD/JPY is 113.00 and GBP/USD is trading around 1.3200. The data from China confirmed, that Chinese economy in the third quarter grew at a consensus 6.8% on a yearly basis. On Wall Street moderate gains and relative strength of blue chips, S&P500 futures is worth 2560 points.
On Thursday 19th of October, the event calendar is busy with important news releases, but some of them were already posted overnight ( data from China and Australia). Nevertheless, during the London session, the UK will reveal Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data and later, during the US session, Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US will be released.
GBP/USD analysis for 19/10/2017:
The major news event during the London session is UK Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data release that was scheduled at 08:30 am GMT. The market participants expect the sales to dip -0.1% after last month 1.0% increase. Moreover, on a yearly basis, sales should decrease from 2.4% to 2.1% as well. Retail Sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. When the consumer spending dips, then the GDP is very affected as in the UK consumer spending is responsible for 60-70% of GDP. The consumers are more likely to spend the money if the wages are rising and according to the latest data, Average Earnings Index is relatively stable at the level of 2.2%. So, if the data will beat the expectations, the British Pound might appreciate in the short-term across the board.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market still trades below the dashed black trend line, which was tested twice already. Currently, the key technical resistance is at the level of 1.3220 and only a sustained breakout above this level would open the road towards the next resistance at the level of 1.3293. On the other hand, if the bull camp will be too weak to break out, the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.3154 and 1.3111.
Market Snapshot: USD/JPY close to the recent top
The price of USD/JPY has broken out above the black short-term trend line resistance and currently is trading close to the recent local swing high at the level of 113.43.The market conditions are starting to become overbought and a down candle might be forming, which indicates the possibility of another down move. The nearest support is seen at the level of 112.49.
Market Snapshot: Gold bounced from 61% Fibo
The price of Gold has slid from the local high at the level of $1,306 but bounced from 61% Fibo at the level of $1,277 in oversold market conditions. This might be a good indication of a near time strength, but the key level to the upside is still higher at $1,289.
