This week's event is Tuesday's presentation of the four major global central banks (the Fed, the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan) at the European Central Bank's "Challenges in Policy Effectiveness, Responsibility, and Reputation Communication" conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Discussion can be an opportunity (planned?) for coordinated action by the central bankers on the financial markets. The majority of economists thinks it can take the form of a confirmation of the direction of monetary policy in the most important economic regions of the world (tightening), ensuring win against deflation and signals of inflation return and, most importantly, warnings of markets that current prices are too low, cost of money and future interest rates. This prediction brings with it the potential for a stronger deterioration of moods and a drop in risk appetite on the financial markets in the next weeks.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The Euro might be strongly impacted by the conference conclusions, but so far the bull camp looks too weak to continue the bonce after the failure at the trend line resistance around the level of 1.1676. Moreover, the trending conditions look overbought and the upwards momentum is diminishing. If the conference outlook will be worse than expected, the price might continue the downside move towards the technical support at the level of 1.1554 and below.
