According to several recent forecasts, US economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to hold at or near the solid 3.3% pace thats been reported in Q2 and Q3. If the anticipation is accurate, US GDP growth could post its strongest and longest run of quarterly increases in over a decade. This projection marks a modest improvement over the solid 3.0% gain in Q3 and the 3.1% rise in Q2 (seasonally adjusted annual rates).
Nevertheless, other economists are not that much optimistic about the US GDP increase. According to the IHS Markit US businesses reported another month of solid growth in November, putting the economy on course for a reasonable, though by no means stellar, fourth quarter. Current PMI readings are broadly consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of just over 2.0%.
It is worth to notice that its still early for fourth quarter data as the first print of October data is nearly complete, but there are only a handful of preliminary estimates for Novembers profile and December is a complete unknown at this point. However, based on the published numbers to date, its fair to say that a disappointing Q4 GDP report at this stage looks unlikely.
Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the bounce from the technical support zone between the levels of 110.61 - 111.06, the market keeps testing the nearest resistance at the level of 111.61.Nevertheless, the price still trades below the black trend line and the momentum indicator is barely above its fifty level. Breakout below the level of 110.61 opens the road towards the next support at the level of 109.84.
