Sentiment on Thursday looks a bit better than yesterday and risk aversion was slightly forgotten during the Asian part of the trading session. Stock markets and oil are slowly climbing up, better off the emerging markets currency. Among the main currencies is quite calm. EUR/USD is stopped at 1.1800 and USD/JPY is trading at 113. AUD is the best performer that has found support the labor market report.
On Thursday 16th of November, the event calendar is busy with important news releases. During the London session, the Uk will release Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data, Eurozone will post Consumer Price Index data. During the US session, Canada will present Manufacturing Sales data and the US will reveal Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims, Import Price Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data. Plenty of speeches will be made today especially from the Bank of England representatives: BOE Governor Mark Carney, BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent, BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe, BOE Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Sir David Ramsden and BOE Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation Sam Woods. Then FOMC Member Loretta Mester will give a speech. Then SNB Member of the Governing Board Andrea Maechler will also say a few words. At the end of the day, two more FOMC members will speak: Robert Kaplan and Lael Brainard.
GBP/USD analysis for 16/11/2017:
The publication of data from the British labor market did not shake the Pound Sterling too much, which strongly supports levels at the end of yesterday's close. The latest data showed a slight increase in the average weekly wage in September (2.2% y/y, consensus: 2.1%), while revising the August index for an additional 0.1%. Unemployment remains stable at 4.3%. Today the UK will release Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Plenty of speakers from the Bank of England might cause an increased volatility on GBP pairs and crosses. The most important one is the speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney and it is expected, that he might comment about the recent "dovish hike" again, so it is worth to keep an eye.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had bounced from the technical support at the level of 0.8732 and since then is trying to break out above the 50% Fibo at the level of 0.9019. Nevertheless, the resistance zone between the levels of 0.9017 - 0.9047 is strong enough to reverse any attempt to rally higher. The nearest support for the price is seen at the level of 0.8938.
Market Snapshot: Gold reverses at the channel line
The price of Gold has reversed after hitting the channel upper line around the level of $1,290. Currently, the price got back to the consolidation zone which starts to look like a bearish flag pattern. The next support is seen at the level of $1,268, but the key level to the downside remains at the level of $1,260.
Market Snapshot: SPY makes a sequence of lower highs
The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has made another lower high and a lower low after the top at the level of 259.32 points, which might indicate a deeper correction is in progress. Nevertheless, so far the drop from 259.32 to 255.58 might be considered as a pull-back, not a reversal. To trigger the deeper correction, the price must violate the level of 253.97.
