EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains which lead the price to break above the important price area of 1.23. EUR has been the dominant currency in the pair with mixed economic reports whereas USD is struggling to regain its momentum due to worse economic reports in the process. EUR having not much to offer in the market has been dominated by other currencies but USD failed to gain in this situation which does indicate the severe weakness of USD at the current situation. Today EUR German Import Prices report was published with a decreased value as expected at 0.3% from the previous value of 0.8%. The worse outcome of the economic report did provide USD to gain some momentum in the process but it is expected to be very short in duration. On the other hand, today USD Core PCE Price Index report was published with an increase to 0.2% as expected from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending decreased to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.5% and Personal Income increased to 0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.3%. Despite having mixed economic reports today, USD is expected to gain momentum this week having Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate report to be published on Friday. As of the current scenario, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market this week whereas EUR is expected to gain a long-term momentum in the coming days with certain retracement or pullback in the process.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing impulsive bearish pressure having 2 days of correction in the pair after breaking above the 1.23 price area recently. A bearish regular divergence can also be spotted in the market currently which does increase the probability of proceeding lower towards 1.23 or dynamic level of 20 EMA in the coming days before price bounces up higher with the target towards 1.25 and later towards 1.2850 area. As the price remains above 1.2050 area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
