Global macro overview for 06/02/2018:
Post-RBA decision market sentiment check
The interest rate decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia was in line with the market consensus, the main interest rate was maintained at 1.5%. Still, the bank expects that the growth rate of the Australian economy will remain at around 3.0% in the medium term, which will also be supported by the low level of money costs. The source of uncertainty for the economic outlook remains the level of household consumption due to the fact that their income is growing slowly and the level of indebtedness remains high. The situation on the labor market in Australia remains good. Further employment growth is expected, as well as a gradual decline in the unemployment rate. The CPI inflation index, as well as its base counterpart, remain below the target at 2.0%, however, the slow inflation increase due to the observed solid economic activity is anticipated. This, for now, should be an argument for maintaining the status quo in monetary policy.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The 38% Fibo retracement at the level of 0.7897 was not strong enough to hold the supply and the market dropped lower towards the next Fibo at the level of 0.7820. The market conditions are oversold, both on RSI and Stochastic oscillator, so there is a chance for a bounce from 50% Fibo. In a case of the extension to the downside, the next support is seen at the level of 0.7729.
