EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains which lead the price to reside inside the support area of 1.2050-1.2160. EUR has been struggling with the worse economic reports published recently providing no support for the currency to gain momentum against the impulsive non-volatile bearish pressure. Today EUR German Retail Sales report was published with a decrease of 0.6% from the previous decline of 0.2%, which was expected to increase to 0.8%; M3 Money Supply report showed decrease to 3.7% from the previous value of 4.2% which was expected to be at 4.1%; Private Loans report showed a slight increase to 3.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.9%; and Italian Prelim CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Moreover, the German Prelim CPI and ECOFIN Meetings results is currently tentative and expected to be quite neutral with the outcomes. On the other hand, ahead of the NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate reports to be published this week, today USD Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%; Personal Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%; Personal Income is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%; Chicago PMI is expected to increase to 58.2 from the previous figure of 57.4; and Pending Home Sales is expected to decrease to 0.6% from the previous value of 3.1%. As of the current scenario, EUR has been worse with the economic reports published today, whereas USD economic reports forecast is quite mixed. Though USD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports, further positive outcomes are expected in the coming days leading to further domination over EUR. To sum up, USD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR this week whereas certain volatility and correction can be observed in the process of further bearish momentum in this pair.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the support area of 1.2050-1.2160 from where certain correction and volatility is expected. Though the bearish impulsive trend is still in place, but certain retracement can be seen along the way as the price is currently quite away from the mean price. Currently, we will be waiting for the price to break below 1.2050 with a daily close, before we try to sell this pair for long-term profits with target towards the 1.1720 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below the 1.2300 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
