The quarter begins with the next episode of the sale of risky assets. The SP500 dropped 2.2% on Monday. plunged by the technology sector. The Nasdaq index at the same time erased the whole of this year's increase. From the intraday peak (65.40) the WTI barrel rate fell to over 2.5 USD. In such an environment, the yen strengthened, USD / JPY fell below 106.00. The EUR/USD starts the month in the middle of its wide fluctuation range 1.2160 - 1.2550.
On Tuesday, 3rd of April, the event calendar is quite busy with important data releases. During the London session, Switzerland will release Retail Sales data and Germany, France, Italy, UK and whole Eurozone will issue PMI Manufacturing data. During the US session, API will release weekly crude oil stock data and there are two speeches scheduled from FOMC members Neel Kashkari and Lael Brainard.
AUD/USD analysis for 03/04/2018:
Today, the Antipodes currencies are strong after reaching this year's lows this past week, returning above 0.77. NZD/USD comes out over 0.7250. Considering that both currencies (and especially the Australian dollar) are sensitive in the context of trade wars, I do not see room for their permanent strengthening. However, the Australian dollar from the group of commodity currencies should be the weakest, which also gives chances for AUD/CAD and, to a lesser extent, AUD/NZD.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trying to bounce towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.7706, just where the short-term trend line is (dashed black). The momentum indicator points to the north so there is a strength behind this move, but the key resistance is seen between the levels of 0.7759 - 0.7786. the nearest support is still seen at the level of 0.7642.
