On Friday 1st of June, the main event of the day is the US job market report in a form of the NFP-Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Nevertheless, in the meantime, there are other important data scheduled for release, like PMI Manufacturing data from across the Eurozone and the UK, Australian Commodity Prices data and Italian Gross Domestic Product data.
EUR/USD analysis for 01/06/2018:
The global investors expect the Non-Farm Payrolls (monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector) to increase from 164k last month the 189k for this month, the Unemployment Rate ( the percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one) to remain at 3.9% and the Average Hourly Earnings ( average change in level of pay) to increase from 0.1% last month to 0.3% this month. The ISM Manufacturing index is expected to increase from 572 to 58.3 points in this month as well.
Except of the headline number, the next most important data will come from the Average Hourly Earnings index - an indicator of how the average level of pay is changing. The Average Hourly Earnings figure provides insight into future spending and inflation. A High Average Hourly Earnings bodes well for future consumption, as workers have more disposable income. High figures may indicate inflationary pressures due to employee's additional potential to spend. The figure is either measured in hourly or weekly averages or as a percent change from the previous month.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the NFP-Payrolls data are released. The market has broken through the navy trend line resistance but remains locked in a tight consolidation zone between the levels of 1.1644 - 1.1726. The market conditions are still neutral as the traders await the NFP-Payrolls figures. In a case of a better than expected data, the price might test the technical resistance at the level of 1.1726 and in a case of a breakout higher, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1756. Otherwise, the price will likely test the technical support at the level of 1.1644 and if the price will fall back down below the navy trend line, then the downtrend will likely continue lower towards the level of 1.1509.
