4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 99p - 71p - 58p - 76p - 105p.
The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 82n (82p).
On the first trading day of the week, the EUR / USD currency pair was trading very restrained and without a definite direction of movement. No important macroeconomic reports were published on this day, perhaps, except the index of business activity in the EU production sector. The value of which fully corresponded to the forecast but did not cause any reaction. There have also been no new reports from Donald Trump or his trading partners against whom the odious US leader has already managed to introduce trade duties. However, something interesting is still there. And as often happens in the last year, it has something to do with Trump. This time, the US president said that the WTO (World Trade Organization) is also unfair and ill-treated with the United States, and if the organization does not improve substantially its work, then the US will leave it. What does it really mean? Since the EU, Russia and China filed lawsuits in the WTO on Trump's antics and his introduction of duties, the US withdrawal from the WTO will free the country from implementing the regulations of this organization and accordingly, its decisions in response to suits of dissatisfied countries. Thus, such a step for the States will be very logical in the light of the unleashing of a full-scale trade war. In general, the bluff of Trump's actions cannot be called exactly.
The US is clearly intended to renegotiate trade agreements with all its partners, making it clear that either they agree to Washington's terms or they will not be with us. However, the main issue still lies in China, which does not make concessions and has its own means of pressure on the US economy.
Trading recommendations:
For the EUR/USD pair continues to move downward rather restrained. At the moment, shorts are still relevant for small lots, since the "dead cross" is weak with the targets of 1,1547 and 1.1527.
Buy-positions can be opened only before the Bulls overcome the critical Kijun-sen line. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will once again pass into the hands of bulls, and the target for the upward movement will be the level of 1.1696.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations to the illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen is a red line.
Kijun-sen is a blue line.
Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.
Chikou Span is a green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com