GBP / USD
The British pound, like last week, became the pioneer in the growth of counter-dollar currencies. Formally, the growth of the pound by 125 points occurred on data on the increase in retail sales in August by 0.3% against the forecast of -0.2%, as well as on some of the worst data for the US. Sales of houses in the secondary market for August did not change since July (5.34 million against the forecast of growth to 5.36 million). But other data were quite optimistic: the weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits was 201 thousand (historical record) against the forecast of 210 thousand, business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia in September increased from 11.9 to 22.9. The stock market (S & P500) grew by 0.85% and set a new historic high (2934). The historical record of Dow Jones has now become 26697. That is, there is a growing appetite for risk. Despite the lack of progress at the informal Brexit EU summit this week, the expectations of the politicians remain positive. The sides have to agree on the Irish border, and on this issue, there will be serious negotiations in October, and in November, the final summit.
Also, the good news was the information about the full readiness of the documents for the impeachment of Theresa May, prepared by the conservative party. May will retire (beautifully and without impeachment) as soon as Britain leaves the EU in March next year.
Technically, the price was the same "throw up", which we talked about yesterday. The price channel line is reached, the convergence with the oscillator Marlin is preserved (N4). However, the price move above the level of 1.3316 (Fibonacci level of 238.2%) eliminates the divergence, and the price may continue to rise.
The Fibonacci grid can be arranged differently to the top of the third wave of traffic (August 30), which can be one branch of traffic, in which case the current stop is at the level of 161.8%. But this does not change the current focus, consolidating above the level will allow the price to rise higher. The first target is 1.3422, the level of 200%.
Time is now working against the pound. A prolonged delay in the range of 1.3212-1.3316 will strengthen the divergence formed and move the fight back to the range of 1.3102-1.3212. Leaving the price under 1.3102, which will correspond to the consolidation under the line Kruzenshtern on H4, will allow to start to consider options with the turn of the market.
