4-hour timeframe
The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 94p (94p).
Well, Theresa May said that the UK will take a tough stance in the next round of negotiations, Michel Barnier said that it will not allow May to choose what she needs from EU rules, without assuming any responsibilities at all. He rejected all of May's key proposals for Brexit, and the British Prime Minister herself later noted that she would not make any concessions in the negotiations with the European Union. Thus, the likelihood that there will be no deal between the EU and Britain at all is growing. Also, there is a growing likelihood that the negotiations will drag on at least until November. And this does not mean that the parties will agree. In general, many people have a question, but was this Brexit in general? Whatever it was, and the political conflict in the UK is in full swing. Most MPs also do not support May's plan and are going to vote against him. Thus, Theresa May clearly does not experience excessive support within the country. Accordingly, its political ratings are falling. Against the background of all this, the pound sterling will be very difficult to rise in price. At the same time, Trump intends to withdraw from the WTO, which means even greater heat in trade relations with all US trading partners. Thus, Washington does not go backward, and the demand for the US dollar may begin to grow again. What do we have in total? There are no grounds for strengthening the pound, there are plenty of reasons for the growth of the US dollar. If Trump does not begin to deliberately lower the dollar rate in the near future, then the probability of a pair down is at least 90%.
Trading recommendations:
The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move down. Thus, today and tomorrow morning, it is recommended to be in sales with the targets of 1.2843 and 1.2784. Turning the MACD indicator up will indicate the beginning of the upward correction, the shorts can be closed.
The buy-positions are recommended to be reconsidered only after traders overcome the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the uptrend may resume with the target of 1.3057, but there are very few fundamental reasons for such an option.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations to the illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen is a red line.
Kijun-sen is a blue line.
Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span is a green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com