On Friday, the 7th of September, the main event is the NFP-Payrolls data release at 12:30 pm GMT and the other data associated with this event: Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and Participation Rate. This is not the only important publication, the global investors are also waiting for, among other things, GDP in the Eurozone and a change in employment and PMI in Canada. Talks on the NAFTA agreement are still ongoing, sources familiar with the topic say that the consensus is unlikely this week.
USD/JPY analysis for 07/09.2018:
In July, the number of employees in the US increased by 157,000 which was a slight disappointment. In August, markets expect stronger figures. The average of forecasts by analysts of the largest financial institutions is 191,000 people. It is believed that some short-term factors affecting the weak July result have already been leveled and the latest data will show an improvement in the situation. I am talking primarily about the Toys R Us bankruptcy, which strongly affected employment.
According to RBC, the employment growth trend oscillates around 200,000 people. It consists of several factors - a good ADP result, a record low value of initial applications for unemployment benefits and a high number of new jobs. Goldman Sachs is slightly less optimistic, believes that NFP will amount to 175,000. people due to the negative impact of seasonal work fall.
In addition to the NFP, the global investors will also learn about the US unemployment rate. Here, analysts expect a slight decline of 0.1 p.p. from 3.9% to 3.8%. As Fedic told FED on Wednesday, the US economy is already in full employment, so not much room for the improvement left.
Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market dropped towards the level of 110.54, which was a technical support for the price. Currently, the price is hovering around this level, but the local low was made already at the level of 110.37. The next support is seen at the level of 110.20, 110.10 and 110.00, so this looks like a pretty solid zone of support. Om the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 110.68. Please notice the negative and weak momentum indicator reading that support the short-term bearish bias.
