Published on Tuesday, economic statistics from the United States provided significant support to US stock indexes, which caused a new wave of optimism and talk that the recent decline was not even a correction, but only a slight decrease against the background of a small fright caused by concerns about the prospects for the global economy.
According to the presented data, the volume of industrial production in September in the USA increased by 0.3% against the forecast of an increase of 0.2% and more noticeable growth in August by 0.4%. The value of open vacancies on the labor market also turned out to be positive, which reached a maximum of 7.136 million in August against 7.077 million in July and a predicted value of 6.945 million.
On this wave, as well as on the statement of, the new head of the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, that the American economy "is not cooled and not overheated" and that "it makes sense to gradually raise interest rates", the local stock market received considerable support, and major stock indexes added more than 2.0%. As for the dynamics of the US dollar, it traded in different directions, but in general, remained to the basket of major currencies in a small plus.
Estimating the general alignment of forces and factors influencing the mood of investors in the market, we believe that the overall dollar sideways tendency towards major currencies will continue. Local support can only get the British pound, and then only if the next round of endless negotiations between the EU and the UK to exit the last of the union ends in real success. The single currency can also grow on this wave.
In general, assessing the overall picture in the markets, we would not be so optimistic, and we believe that the US stock market will continue to adjust, as well as crude oil prices, and the US dollar to consolidate against major currencies. The main reason remains the desire of the Fed to continue raising interest rates, as well as the factor of tension between China and the United States.
Today, we should pay attention to the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting on monetary policy. If it reflects the steady striving of the regulator to further raise interest rates, this can support the dollar against major currencies.
Forecast of the day:
The currency pair EUR / USD is trading below the level of 1.1565. In general, remaining in the "side", the pair is likely to correct down to 1.1500 if the data on consumer inflation in the eurozone turns out to be weaker than the forecast, and the Fed's protocol confirms the bank's firmness to normalize monetary policy.
The currency pair USD / JPY is trading above the level of 112.20 and above the support line of the short-term uptrend. If it keeps above this mark, there is a probability of a local growth to 112.90.
