Yesterday, the dollar continued to strengthen steadily, although no macroeconomic data came out. Of course, partly market participants are preparing for the release of data on inflation in the US, for which the expectations are rather optimistic. The story with Brexit also contributed to the investor sentiment. The leader of the Scottish nationalists said that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union was a reason for re-raising the issue of Scotland's independence, and announced preparations for a new referendum. Naturally, the pound with a new force began to lose its position and followed by the single European currency. After all, this issue will inevitably lead to an increase in tension between the UK and the European Union, which will make serious and negative adjustments both to the negotiations themselves and to the final version of the divorce agreement. At the very end of the day, the dollar began to rapidly lose its position as soon as it became known that, due to the approaching hurricane, oil production in the Gulf of Mexico could be suspended. Considering that the dollar has been strengthening for quite a long time and clearly turned out to be overbought, the slightest excuse was needed for correction, and although the news from Europe is not encouraging, investors had enough new horror stories about oil.
Today in the UK, there are data on industrial production. The growth rate of which can accelerate from 0.9% to 1.0%, which will clearly lift the mood of market participants. In the US, there are data on producer prices, the growth rate of which should remain unchanged. The main thing is that these data anticipate tomorrow's publication of data on inflation, which should increase. The piquancy of the situation gives the fact that inventories in the warehouses of wholesale trade should once again increase by 0.8%. However, inventory data is not as important as inflation. Nevertheless, we should not forget about the hurricane, which has already become the reason for the evacuation of some people living on the coast. It can be a reason for the further growth in oil prices, which will adversely affect the dollar. The British government must somehow respond to statements about the referendum on the independence of Scotland, and the reaction is unlikely to be complacent.
If no new information about oil production and the hurricane follow, then the pound will consolidate at 1.3150. If the hurricane fills the entire information space, then the pound can rise to 1.3225. If Theresa May will be harsh in her statements about the next approaches to the independence of Scotland, it is worth waiting for the reduction of the pound to 1.3100.
