Against the backdrop of the ongoing Thanksgiving Day holiday in the States, activity in world markets will most likely be limited and today there will be a short day on this occasion.
Today, the markets will continue to closely follow the development of events around Brexit, which has tired out investors given by its continuous uncertainty. British Prime Minister Theresa May is optimistic in addressing this issue, but markets doubt that she will be able to get out of the EU with favorable conditions for Foggy Albion, which could lead to serious economic losses in the future.
In addition, the focus of the trade war between Washington and Beijing remains in the focus of the market. Investors still hope that at the summit in Buenos Aires, which will be held on November 30 and December 1, a new trade agreement will be reached. It is expected to put a stop to the decline in the growth of the economies of the USA and China. If this does not happen, the new trade duties declared by the Americans will come into effect at the beginning of the new 2019, which were adopted in the middle of this year and were postponed until its end. Of course, one should, in this case, expect a response from Beijing, which will only lead to an escalation of the conflict and become the main cause of the slowdown in the global economy with all the ensuing negative consequences for stock markets. In this situation, we should expect a resumption of demand for defensive assets.
Today, attention should be given to the publication of German GDP data for the 3rd quarter, as well as the values of business activity indices in this country, the eurozone, and the States, as well as the figures for consumer inflation in Canada.
It can be assumed that if the data from the United States turns out to be weaker than forecast, this could have a negative impact on the dollar, which is still under pressure on the wave of rising expectations that the Fed may pause in raising interest rates early next year.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is consolidating above 1.1370 in the wake of the general weakness of the dollar. On the contrary. If the data from Germany and the eurozone turn out to be weaker and positive and from the USA, this can support the pair and lead to its growth to 1.1475.
The USD/CAD pair is trading above 1.3170, remaining in the short-term uptrend. She ignores the fall in oil prices. If the data on consumer inflation in Canada does not show additional growth, and oil quotes continue to decline further, there is a chance that the pair will turn and grow to 1.3300.
