USD/JPY is currently quite indecisive and volatile after having an impulsive run above 113.00 area recently. USD has been holding the upper hand over JPY for a few days, but it is currently struggling to maintain momentum over JPY due to the US budget report which revealed deficit.
In light of recent reports, US Employment reports were quite positive but the US Budget report for October showed deficit of $100.5 billion which had a negative impact on the US currency, leading to certain weakness. Though USD is currently making a pullback, there are still certain reasons for USD to regain its momentum in the future which include the strong likelihood of a rate hike, Equity Market Pressure, and portectionist trade policy. Moreover, upbeat economic data will also be an inevitable tool for the US currency to regain its momentum in the coming days. This week, Fed Chair Powell's speech could provide some clues as of the rate hike decisions and further monetary policy. His speech might have a bigger impact for a definite trend pressure in the short term.
On the JPY side, due to soft economic reports JPY could not take advantage over USD which led to certain indecision in the market. Recently Japan's PPI report was published with a decrease to 2.9% from the previous value of 3.0% which did slightly better than the expectation of decrease to 2.8%. Besides, Prelim Machine Tool Orders decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 2.9%. Japan has been quite rapid with the recent Financial Boom, especially in the banking sector. However, BOJ warns investors to excercise cautioun. Downbeat economic data recently somehow confirmed that investors are revising their portfolios, pulling out the money from JPY. Today Japan's Prelim GDP report was published with a decrease to -0.3% as expected from the previous value of 0.7% and Prelim GDP Price Index also decreased to -0.3% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -0.1%. Tertiary Industry Activity also decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at -0.4% and Revised Industrial Production was slightly better increasing to -0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at -1.1%.
Meanwhile, JPY has been hurt by the economic reports. The pair is likely to make corrections and trade with higher volatility. The market-moving event this week is Fed Chair's speech. Thus, USD may gain impulsive momentum. Ahead of the speech, certain pullbacks may be observed as gains on JPY side before the price moves higher in the future.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite corrective and volatile without definite trend momentum in place for last two days after breaking above 113.00 area with a daily close. The price is currently expected to push lower towards 113.00 area for a retest before pushing higher towards 114.50 in the coming days. As the price consistently rejected bulls for two days, the bears are showing their presence in the market which might lead to short-term bearish gains before the price continues to push higher with the trend. As the price remains above 112.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00, 113.00
RESISTANCE: 114.50, 115.00
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
