The RBA published the Meeting Minutes overnight. The Australian central bank still says, that the next interest rate move will probably be up, but so far, there are no reasons to make such decisions in the near future.
Employment is stronger than expected, the unemployment rate should fall to 4.75% by 2020. Bank members believe that another wave of unemployment may come. On the other hand, attention was drawn to the fact that real wages have not risen in the last six years. They are still the main source of uncertainty. An increase in remuneration is a necessary condition to achieve the inflation target.
The fall in the value of the Australian dollar this year has contributed to internal economic growth. In this and the following year, GDP growth should average 3.5%. The economy is supported by accumulative monetary policy and better trading conditions. The problem with the real estate market in Sydney and Melbourne has decreased. A high population growth will support the construction of houses. Trade protectionism remains the main risk for the global economy.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Generally, the global investors did not learn anything that was not signaled before and this might be why the AUD did not react much. The market keeps trading below the short-term trend line around the level of 0.7283 after a slight bounce from the support at the level of 0.7268. The key technical resistance is seen between the levels of 0.7314 - 0.7335, but the overbought market conditions and neutral momentum are indicating a possibility of another leg down in this pair. The nearest support is seen at the level of 0.7249.
