"The divorce agreement" between the UK and the European Union has not yet been submitted to parliament, there is clearly not up to it. After all, the Minister of Affairs for Brexit, as well as the Minister of Labor, resigned because of her disagreement with the version of the agreement that Theresa May intends to hold. So, the possibility of a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister is becoming increasingly real. The European Union itself will only consider accepting the agreement reached on November 25. As Donald Tusk made a reservation, unless something extraordinary happens. Apparently, Theresa May's resignation and the blocking of the agreement by the British Parliament is just such an option. It is curious that only the pound has suffered from all this, while the single European currency has slightly improved its position against the dollar. This clearly demonstrates that leaving the UK from the European Union without any agreement harms only the United Kingdom itself. Europe can benefit from this. The actions of the British parliamentarians, who have decided by disclosing a decision to discredit Theresa May and earn more political points, trivially lead the UK to an economic disaster. Although it is obvious that Theresa May will be appointed the guilty party anyway.
If we ignore the political scandals, we can see that things are already not going well in Great Britain. Retail sales growth slowed from 3.3% to 2.2%. Do not forget that inflation has remained unchanged, so that the profit of investors is reduced. But in the US, the growth rate of retail sales accelerated from 4.2% to 4.6%, but this did not allow the dollar to strengthen its position against the single European currency, as the euro grew due to problems in the UK. Many understand that if the UK withdraws from the European Union without any agreement, a number of European countries will be able to take its place on the pan-European market.Today, in the USA, industrial production data are coming out, which should show both an acceleration of growth rates and an increase in production capacity utilization. Of course, this is not the most significant indicator for the market, but all the same, the forecasts are quite optimistic.In Europe, the final inflation data is released, which should confirm that it has grown from 2.1% to 2.2%. The rise in inflation will again make everyone believe that the ECB will, however, curtail the program of quantitative easing and start raising the refinancing rate from the middle of next year. True, partly the growth of inflation has already been taken into account by the market after the publication of preliminary data, so one should not expect a special reaction today. Although news from Albion can contribute to the development of events. Political factors are extremely difficult to predict, and if you look at macroeconomics, then you should wait for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1325. Indeed, in the United States, there are factual data, and in Europe only confirmation of what is already known to all.
With the pound, everything is extremely difficult. If you rely on statistics, then the pound should continue to decline. It is not clear how events will develop in the UK. Common sense dictates that British politicians should take a pause and think things through. Their behavior lately has shown that they have temporarily said goodbye to common sense, sensing the taste of blood and the prospect of strengthening their political positions. Albeit at the expense of Britain itself. So you can wait for anything. If tensions continue to rise, the pound will drop to 1.2775. If dear gentlemen prove prudent, informational silence will allow the pound to grow to 1.2875.
