Major global stock indices are trading in the red zone, sales have become widespread, amid fears of a slowdown in the global economy, and falling oil prices. Brent dropped below $ 62 per barrel, rolling away to the annual minimum, the likelihood of a further escalation of the US-Chinese trade war puts strong pressure on technology stocks.The Dow Jones index fell by 2.21%, the NASDAQ, by 1.7%, Apple shares lost 4.79%, Amazon lost 1.11%, Microsoft lost 2.78%. The immediate reason for the sales was a report from China about the development of an investigation against a number of chip manufacturers, including South Korean Samsung and SK Hynix and American Micron, which control 95% of the global DRAM market. China can impose on each of the manufacturers a large fine if the fact of price collusion is proved, and thus makes it clear to the United States that the game can be played together and it does not intend to succumb to outright blackmail. The position of China confirms the likelihood of an escalation of the trade war and contributes to the growth of panic.Meanwhile, the yield on 5-year bonds Tips fell to February lows, which definitely indicates a slowdown in consumer price growth. It is possible that in November, the inflation will drop to 1.8%, which will deprive the Fed of the main argument for the rate increase.
The focus will thus shift to a report on the labor market, in which the main indicator will be not so much the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs, as the growth rate of average wages. In October, there was a jump from 2.8% to 3.1%, which gave some hope for inflation, but the Phillips rule still refuses to support the Fed's plans, which clearly follows from the fall in Tips yields.The dollar still feels confident in many respects because at the same time as the Fed's balance sheet is decreasing, the monetary base is going on, that is, a slow but steady decrease in liquidity. The lack of supply of the main world currency supports the dollar index and does not allow it to decline, but the debate in Congress on the ceiling of the national debt is getting closer, and the budget hole is getting wider. In the short term, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen, but in the CME futures market, a bearish reversal is already beginning to form.EurozoneToday, the focus of the decision of the European Commission on the Italian budget and the possible introduction of sanctions against Italy. The reaction of the euro may be different, depending on the outcome, as long as the situation remains unclear, EUR / USD will trade in a range limited by the levels of 1.30 / 1415.
Great Britain
The pound is waiting for the results of the Brexit plan through the parliament, which will have a decisive impact on the quotes. If May succeeds in convincing the vacillating deputies, GBP / USD can overcome the trend line of 1.32 on the positive wave. In the case of a failure, it is likely to decline to 1.20.OilA number of negative factors continue to exert strong pressure on oil prices. Fears of a decline in demand are confirmed, in its November report, OPEC admitted an oversupply in 2019 at the expense of independent producers.At the same time, the onset of formation of local bottom oil is likely, since the main fears have already been recouped. Yesterday's API report showed a reduction in stocks at Cushing of 1.55 million barrels. This is the first decline since September, and distillate stocks also dropped at the same time, on the whole, the report is clearly bullish for oil. If today, the trend will be confirmed
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