The foreign exchange market will balance up to the G20 summit

The market continues to exaggerate the topic of a possible pause in the Fed interest rate increase after the Fed member P. Harker on Friday made it clear that there could be a pause in the increase in interest rates.The fall in the US stock market, as well as the growing likelihood that the world economy will slow down against the background of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as many believe, can become the basis for a pause in the increase in interest rates by the US regulator.Patrick Harker, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, promulgated on Friday, in which he said that he was not sure about the advisability of the December rate hike, and was the reason that had a strong influence on the dollar. It should also be noted that another representative of the Central Bank, J. Williams, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who is vice chairman of the Federal Reserve System Committee on Open Market Operations (FOMC), on Monday, noted that the regulator is going to continue to raise interest rates, moving to the direction out of the normal level.In general, as long as the markets are confident that a "black cat" has run through the rate of Fed members, the dollar may remain under pressure. And only, as we see it, a decisive increase in rates at the December meeting can dispel these sentiments.An additional negative for the dollar also turned out to be a drop in the yield of US Treasury government bonds, which can be attributed, on the one hand, to hopes that the Fed will pause the borrowing cost increase, and, on the other hand, doubts that the States will manage to negotiate with the Chinese on trade parameters . Here, the transformation of a trade conflict into something more, into a political confrontation, into a "cold war" plays an important role, which is unlikely to contribute to the normalization of economic relations.Evaluating everything that happens, we believe that the dollar can remain under pressure until the outcome of the G20 summit, which will be held in Brazil at the end of this month.Forecast of the day:The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below the level of 112.65. It is under pressure to wait for a possible pause in raising the Fed's rates in December, as well as the uncertainty about whether an agreement will be reached between the States and China at the G20 summit. It can be assumed that if the pair does not rise above the mark of 112.65, then it will continue to fall locally to 112.00.The USD / CHF currency pair is trading below the level of 0.9945. The same factors act on it as on the previous one. It can be assumed that if the price does not rise above the level of 0.9945, then it will continue to fall to 0.9850.

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