Yesterday, there was enough reason to resume the strengthening of the dollar, because the data on business indices in the US was even better than the wildest assumptions. Thus, the business activity index in the service sector increased from 53.5 to 54.8, while the preliminary assessment showed an increase to 54.7. The composite index of business activity rose from 53.9 to 54.9, while, according to preliminary data, growth was expected to 54.8. In turn, the business activity index in the UK services sector fell from 53.9 to 52.2, once again demonstrating business concerns about the uncertainty caused by the confusion with Brexit. Investors simply do not understand what awaits them in the near future, after the UK withdraws from the European Union. While there is no clear understanding of how trade relations will be built between the United Kingdom and Europe, there can be no talk of any optimism on the part of investors.
The growth of the dollar was hampered by preparations for today's elections in the United States, where Congress and almost a third of senators will be fully re-elected. Almost certainly, the Democrats will be able to take revenge for 2016, when the Republicans got the majority of the seats in Congress and in the Senate. And that's not counting the White House, where they also sent their delegate. Many fear that as soon as the Democrats get a majority in the legislature, they immediately begin to actively interfere with Donald Trump, for whom they have the most tender and touching feelings. So, there is a high probability of a certain paralysis of the American power system, which always leads to greater radicalization of US foreign policy.
So today, the factor of elections in the United States of America will have a major impact on the market. These exit-polls will determine the mood of market participants, and most likely, given the apparent uncertainty about how relations will be built between the various branches of government, it is worth waiting for a negative reaction. In addition to all this, the JOLTS data on open vacancies should show their reduction from 7,136 thousand to 7,100 thousand. The European data will not be able to affect investor sentiment, especially since the final data on business activity indices will simply confirm the preliminary estimate that showed them decline. Also, the growth rate of producer prices is likely to remain unchanged.
The euro / dollar currency pair returns to the level of 1.1440 after a rollback. It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within the level of 1.1440 (1.1430 / 1.1450) on the general information and news background.
The currency pair pound / dollar demonstrates active upward interest, reaching a range level of 1.3000 / 1.3050, where an attempt is being made to fix above it. Probably assume fluctuations within the slide-positive level, where traders should keep track of price fixing 1.3000 / 1.3090 when placing orders.
