At the end of yesterday, the dollar began to rapidly lose its position, and simultaneously with both the pound and the single European currency. Such a development in the foreign exchange market immediately suggests that the matter is either in American statistics or in regular statements and rumors about Brexit. And just one glance at American statistics is enough to understand what happened. On the one hand, the next estimate of GDP for the third quarter reaffirmed the acceleration of economic growth from 2.9% to 3.0%. However, the data on the real estate market is very surprising. Even scared. As home sales in the primary market collapsed by 8.9%, although the expected growth was 3.7%. Add to this is the obvious overbought of the dollar, and everything falls into place.
Do not forget about Brexit. Moreover, rumors began to arrive on Tuesday that the British parliament could vote against the adoption of an agreement with the European Union. Mark Carney spoke on this topic yesterday. The words of the head of the Bank of England can scare anyone, as he directly stated that withdrawal from the European Union would deal a severe blow to the UK economy. According to him, the damage can be estimated at 11% of GDP, and the pound has every chance of falling below parity against the dollar. True, no one listened to him, since so far everyone is experiencing euphoria due to reaching an agreement. Although he has not yet adopted the British Parliament.
It is difficult to say whether the next statements will be made today about Brexit, so it is worth starting from macroeconomic statistics. Especially since the weakening of the dollar was quite rapid, and a rebound suggests itself. For example, in the UK, there are data on the credit market, and the decline in total consumer lending is projected from 4.7 billion pounds to 4.5 billion pounds. Moreover, the number of approved mortgage applications should be reduced from 65,269 to 64,500. So, there is not much to be a reason for optimism. In the US, however, data on personal income and expenses are published, and both indicators should show an increase of 0.4%. Well, the main event of the day, and possibly the week, will be the publication of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. There is no doubt that it will reflect the intention to increase the refinancing rate in December, and three more times next year. Of course, the market has long ago laid all this in the value of the dollar, but another confirmation of these expectations, and even in the form of official paper, will seriously increase the attractiveness of the dollar.
The euro / dollar currency pair, like the GBP / USD pair, flew up, reaching 1.1391, after which the slowdown process began. Probably assume stagnation, followed by a rollback of 1.1350 - 1.1330.
The informational and emotional background currency pair pound / dollar soared more than 100 points from the 1.2720 / 1.2770 range level, after which it formed a slight slowdown. It is likely to assume that emotions will subside and we will see a rollback of 1.2800 - 1.2770.
