The euro returned to growth after Italy announced that it would reduce its budget spending, although traders remain cautious in anticipation of the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank.
In general, the world markets started the day positively against the background of easing tensions between the US and China and expectations that China will strengthen support for its economy. Positive sentiment spread to the currency even the Australian dollar, which is a reliable indicator of risk sentiment and the economic condition of China gained 0.3 percent. News from Italy at this time support the euro. I believe that the euro/dollar pair will remain in a narrow range until the beginning of 2019. The pair fell into the range trap due to very strong cross current. On the one hand, growth in the USA is slowing down, on the other, it is because of serious political risks in Europe and cautious ECB.
Markets are preparing for the fact that the ECB is likely to officially announce the end of its quantitative easing program at a policy meeting and they are likely to be cautious about the prospects for the economy. Investors are interested in the main question, whether the ECB will start raising interest rates before the expiration of Mario Draghi's term in office next October. However, this will most likely not happen. The dollar was under pressure after an eight-month rally, as investors lowered their expectations regarding the tightening of Fed policies in 2019 and signs of a thaw in the US-China trade dispute.
