4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 195p - 77p - 137p - 79p - 96p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 117p (129p).
If the euro is growing more or less confidently on the eve of the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting, then the pound sterling is standing still. First, the British currency does not have such support as the euro (the topic in the Italian budget). Secondly, after yesterday it became known about a new vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May, this time from the Labour Party, the chances of strengthening the pound have decreased significantly. Third, the UK consumer price index for November was released today, and as expected by traders, inflation slowed to 2.3% year-on-year. Thus, there were no encouraging news for the pound. There is only hope that the Federal Reserve will be led by Trump and will not raise its key interest rate today. Frankly, there is little chance on this. The second hope for the British currency is that the press conference of the US Federal Open Market Committee may sound "dovish", which will be expressed in words to stop tightening monetary policy in 2019 on the proximity of the "neutral" rate level and so on. Only this can support the pound in the short term. Otherwise, the downtrend may resume. On the topic of Brexit no new data for the past day has not been reported. But there was another report regarding the vote of no confidence in May. Immediately, 4 parties did not wait until Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, would submit a draft of no confidence in the prime minister to Parliament, and submitted their vote of no confidence. Thus, in the near future there will be another vote, this time not within one party, but in the entire Parliament, according to the results of which Theresa May can be dismissed.
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD currency pair stopped moving upwards. If the pair manages to overcome the Senkou span b line, it will become relevant to buy orders in small lots with a target of 1.2734. It is recommended to trade very carefully this evening, as the results of the Fed meeting may have a strong impact on the movement of the currency pair.
Sell positions are recommended to resume no earlier than when the price is fixed below the Kijun-sen line with targets at 1,2547 and 1,2451. This scenario is now more preferable.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com