24-hour timeframe
The British pound was held under the auspices of Brexit for the entire year. It is due to long and difficult negotiations between London and Brussels on the conditions of the UK's exit from the EU, as well as a whole mass of uncertainties, ranging from a possible second referendum and ending with the possible resignation of Theresa May, the pound sterling became cheaper for most of the year. It should also be noted that the UK macroeconomic statistics in 2018 in most cases disappointed traders and also did not provide any support to the British currency. As a result of all this, the pound ends the year around two-year lows. Now, for the British currency, everything will depend on how the whole process of settling the conditions for Brexit ends. In mid-January, the British Parliament will have to vote for the bill of Theresa May, defining the terms of relations with the European Union after March 29. There is a high probability that the Parliament will not accept the initiative of Theresa May. In this case, several scenarios are possible. The easiest - "hard" Brexit, that is, exit from the EU without any agreements. The most difficult – the resignation of Theresa May, a new referendum or refusal to withdraw from the EU unilaterally, according to the decision of the European Court. In any case, except for the "soft" Brexit, theoretically, the pound sterling could resume falling, since these will be negative options for the British economy. However, we believe that the important thing is that now we need pound to feel at ease, at least some decision on Brexit, which no one will cancel and will not reconsider. When this decision is made, traders will calm down and consider the pound as not only a currency to be disposed of.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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