The global financial markets still maintain the expectation that the world economy will continue to slow down the growth rate, and there are important reasons for this. If, after concluding an agreement between Washington and Beijing on a "truce" in a trade war for a period of 90 days at the G-20 meeting three weeks ago, cautious optimism emerged in the markets that tensions between the United States and China would decrease, after the publication last week of data on the dynamics in China's industrial production volumes, pessimism returned to the markets again, which caused the resumption of a decline in demand for risky assets, and the US dollar received support.
At the end of last week, the dollar rose against a basket of major currencies and is again above the local high reached more than one month ago. An important supporting factor is still the expectation of an increase, the fourth this year, the interest rates of the Federal Reserve, which is determined by the probability of 74.9%, according to the dynamics of futures, rates on Federal funds of the US Treasury. At the same time, the result of the ECB meeting showed that after the termination of stimulus measures this month, the regulator will not hurry with the beginning of the cycle of raising interest rates and at the same time plans to refinance part of the funds received from the sale of government bonds.
Now all the attention of the market will be paid to the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy, which will be held on December 19-20. Here, all the attention of investors will be paid to the central bank's assessment of the prospects of the US economy, as well as the further process of raising interest rates.
Today, the market's attention will be drawn to the publication of consumer inflation data in the eurozone. It is expected that in annual terms it will maintain the growth rate at 2.0%, but it's November value will decrease by 0.2% against growth in October by 0.2%. it can be assumed that if these forecasts are confirmed, it could hit the single currency rate, since it will finally bury the market's hopes that the ECB will decide to raise interest rates this year.
The forecast for today.:
The EURUSD pair remains in the "sideways" on the wave of expectations of the outcome of the Fed meeting on monetary policy, as well as the publication of consumer inflation data in the eurozone. It can be assumed that if the data shows a negative trend, the pair, having overcome the level of 1.1300, can continue to move to 1.1220.
The AUDUSD is above the level of 0.7155, remaining under pressure in the wake of signals that the Chinese economy has slowed down. If the fall in demand for risky assets continues, we should expect the price to decline to 0.7100 after crossing the level of 0.7155.
