Yesterday can be described as a meaningless fuss, because against the background of throwing the pound and the euro from side to side, in the end, all remained with their own. In part, this result is caused by the mourning day in the United States on the occasion of the funeral of George Bush Sr., and therefore, the Americans did not work, and mourned the forty-first president. And without the participation of American players, their European colleagues did not dare to make any significant changes in the situation on the market. Although, at least the single European currency had a reason for growth in the form of quite good data on business activity indices, which, although showed a decline, but not as strong as the preliminary data. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector declined from 53.7 to 53.4, rather than 53.1. Also, the composite index of business activity decreased from 53.1 to 52.7, while preliminary data showed its decline to 52.4. The growth rate of retail sales accelerated from 0.3% to 1.7%, which was slightly worse than the forecasts, as expected growth to 2.1%. But the British statistics disappointed, as the index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 52.2 to 50.4.
Nevertheless, today we can see the performance of yesterday's statistics as the American players have returned. Nevertheless, to a greater extent, everyone will follow US statistics, especially on the labor market, since tomorrow the Ministry of Labor will publish its monthly report. At the same time, the market reaction will be rather negative, although moderate, since the main events will unfold tomorrow, and it is better not to take risk and remain cautious. As for the statistics themselves, they are rather interesting. Thus, ADP data can show that employment increased by 195,000 versus 227,000 in the previous month. So employment growth rates are declining, which will be perceived negatively. True, data on applications for unemployment benefits may somewhat raise the spirits, since their total number should be reduced by 19,000. And the number of initial applications can be reduced by 9,000, and repeated ones by another 10,000. But the negative will still be more since, in addition to data on the labor market, other data are also published, and production orders are particularly interesting, which should decrease by 0.2%. Well, the final data on business activity indices can confirm the decline in the services sector from 54.8 to 54.4, and the composite from 54.9 to 54.4.
The euro/dollar currency pair once again bounced off the range of 1.1300, forming a pullback of 50 points. It is likely to assume that fluctuations remain within the range of 1.1300/1.1360, while tracking clear fixations.
The pound/dollar currency pair formed a pullback to the recently completed range level of 1.2720 / 1.2770, after which it returned to the limits of 1.2700. It is likely to assume that the amplitude is kept within the range level of 1.2720 / 1.2770.
