How much rope does not curl, and the end is always one. After a report on US employment in November, it became clear that the US dollar rally had come to an end. If someone hoped that, thanks to strong statistics, the heyday of the economy would be extended, then a slower growth in average wages (+ 0.2% m / m) and employment outside the agricultural sector (+155 thousand), than experts Bloomberg had expected, caused a serious blow to his faith. The idea of slowing US GDP hovers again above the markets, forcing to buy EUR / USD.
The fundamental analysis is based on the principle "a strong economy - a strong currency", but you need to understand that the current values of key indicators mean little to the future dynamics of the exchange rate. The question is what is the trend. In this regard, a slowdown from 4.2% in the second to 3.5% in the third and to 2.7% q / q in the fourth, as predicted by the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed, indicates a depletion of the fiscal stimulus effect. If Donald Trump and his team do not persuade Congress to expand the scope of tax reform, it will be possible to forget about repeating the successes of the current year. And this means that it is time for the US dollar to leave the pedestal.
Dynamics of US GDP
On the other hand, we see the euro, which is not sparkling with success, whose purchases are unsafe. The slowdown in eurozone GDP to 0.2% q / q, the inability of core inflation to go far from the 1% mark, the political crisis in Italy and Brexit seem to be serious deterrents for the bulls in EUR / USD. At the same time, a truce in the US and Chinese trade war creates prerequisites for improving global demand, which is extremely important for the export-oriented economy of the currency bloc. Add to this the potential recovery of the German automotive industry after a serious downturn in July-September, and the picture begins to change. The ECB's belief that the eurozone will stand on its feet can be realized. If the British parliament supports Teresa May, and Rome makes concessions, the main currency pair is quite capable of realizing the median forecast of Reuters experts. More than 60 strategists believe that the end of 2019 euros will cost $ 1.2.
Thus, the "bears" in EUR / USD are cause for concern, while the "bulls" - for hope. Another thing, can the above scenario be realized? Expand Donald Trump's scale of tax reform, renew the trade war, or cause political chaos in Britain, not a single European currency. In addition, selling the dollar on the eve of the FOMC meeting, which is likely to raise rates, is dangerous. If so, the main currency pair risks continuing to consolidate until the December Fed meeting. Unless, of course, strong statistics on US inflation or the dovish rhetoric of the ECB pushes it lower.
Technically, the consolidation of EUR / USD in the trading range of 1.13-1.15 in the framework of the implementation of the Splash and Shelf pattern continues. A break of the upper boundary will increase the risks of growth of the pair in the direction of 1.169 and 1.175. On the contrary, a successful storming of support at 1.13 will open the way for the bears to the south.
EUR / USD, the daily chart
