Global macro overview for 14/01/2019:
Crude oil bounces across the board
The prices of the WTI and Brent oil have rebounded above the key levels of USD 50 and USD 60. Above-average volatility and extremely high risk aversion during the holiday season brought the prices of the raw material to the lowest levels since June 2017. However, with the New Year's rebound on the markets, the price of "black gold" has also been quite impressive - since Christmas Eve the price has increased by about + 20%. It is worth noting that as of the beginning of January, the rules on production cutting by OPEC + by 1.2 million barrels a day come into force. Actual adherence to the limits imposed (remember that in the past it was different) and the related balancing of the market should support the price of the raw material in the following months. In addition, low price levels cause, that we can observe a decline in activity in the US shale mining sector already, which manifests itself in the increasing number of unfinished works and the slowdown in the growth of finished rigs. In general, the impact of both factors can potentially reduce the supply of oil in the subsequent quarters to a greater extent than the predicted decline in demand due to the global economic slowdown.
Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has filled the gap between the levels of 45.62 - 52.22 and made a new local high at the level of 53.34. If the bulls want to regain control over the market, then the next target is seen at the level of 54.65. The momentum is neutral and points to the south, so the nearest support at the level of 49.40 might be tested before the short-term uptrend will continue.
