The dollar continues to trade unevenly against major currencies in the wake of a significant number of multidirectional factors that affect not only the rate of the US currency but also the dynamics of other major currencies.
The first and main reason is the fall in expectations that the Fed this year will decide to raise interest rates at least once against the two previously declared. In addition, it is believed that the American regulator may stop the process of reducing its balance. True, it is not straightforward, but the slowdown in global economic growth, high volatility in the asset market in the States, and constant pressure from President D. Trump may, according to a number of analysts, force the Fed to take this step.
The second reason is the already undisguised signals of a slowdown in the growth of the global economy, which was the basis for the fall in demand for stocks of companies and commodity assets. In this situation, defense assets are in demand, government bonds of economically strong countries, primarily the USA and Germany, then gold and the Japanese yen. The dollar so far falls out of this traditional list for the reason mentioned above.
The third factor influencing the dynamics of currency pairs where the US dollar is present is, on the one hand, the hope that the negotiations between the PRC and the US on trade will be successful, the Australian and New Zealand dollars will win, and on the other, a clear signal from the ECB and personally its President M. Draghi, that the European regulator is not likely to raise interest rates this year. This puts pressure on the euro, but the weakness of the dollar is so strong that the main currency pair, EUR / USD, continues to grow smoothly.
The fourth reason for the current dynamics in the foreign exchange market is the picture taking shape around the process of the UK leaving the European Union. Recently, sterling has received significant support, not because of clarification of the situation around Brexit, but contrary to this. The market clearly hopes that either a new referendum will be held in the country, which will lead to the termination of this process, or a "reasonable" agreement will be reached. Today in London will be another vote in the local parliament on this topic. The result of it can both cause a new fall in sterling, and the continuation of its growth. Everything will depend on the result.
Also, today begins a two-day Fed meeting on monetary policy. No change in interest rates is expected. But investors will be interested in their prospects and a general assessment of the state of the US economy, in the light of the release of the updated GDP data for the 4th quarter of last year on Wednesday.
Forecast of the day:
The currency pair EUR / USD is below the level of 1.1440. The pair may adjust downwards if the vote in the British Parliament turns out to be negative for sterling. In this case, the pair, falling below 1.1415, may fall to 1.1385.
The currency pair GBP / USD is consolidating, pending a vote in parliament. Positive news, if they will, will support the pair and lead to the continuation of its growth to 1.3255. The negative will put pressure on it and may fall to 1.3075 or even lower to 1.3015.
