If in the week by January 25, the submission due to the ECB meeting and business activity data was on the side of the euro, then within five days by February 1 all investors' attention will be focused on the US dollar. The FOMC meeting, the labor market report for January and the first GDP estimate for October-December, can the economic calendar be richer? However, information about the growth of the US economy in the fourth quarter may not see the light. Due to the shutdown of the US government. Not only that, the longest suspension of his work in history is ready to haunt a very weak GDP in January-March, as well as the inaccessibility of statistics, muddies the water in financial markets.
Judging by the peak of EUR / USD below the base of the 13th figure, the euro lost its supply. Could it be otherwise, if the index of purchasing managers in the Eurozone services sector fell to its lowest level in the last five and a half years? If business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany signals an increased risk of the technical recession of the largest economy of the currency bloc? The deterioration of the statistics was recognized by the ECB, which abandoned the same wording on balanced risks and noted that they were inclined downward. That was enough to attack the "bears" on the main currency pair. Mario Draghi said at the press conference that some members of the Governing Council spoke about the need for LTRO, but there was no wide discussion of this topic. Maybe in March. If the statistics continue to deteriorate.
In the meantime, the focus of attention of investors is shifting from the Old World to the New. The ideas of a pause in the process of normalizing the monetary policy of the Fed (CME derivatives altogether signal the end of the cycle) and the slowing down of the US economy forced investors to sell the USD index at the end of 2018. Nevertheless, at the beginning of 2019, the question arose against which currency to form short positions on the dollar? If the FOMC at its January meeting turns out to be a big dove than the markets currently assume, and after impressive December figures on employment, the indicator will go into correction, the bulls of EUR / USD will be able to recoup.
Dynamics of the probability of the Fed rate change
Let's not forget about trade wars. On January 30-31, the next round of talks between the USA and China will take place. And although Wilbur Ross, the US trade minister, said that the parties share many miles, he believes in the possibility of a deal. According to most of the nearly three hundred Reuters experts, the escalation of the conflict even more than now will slow down global GDP. It will hit the euro, as a decline in external demand is detrimental to the export-oriented economy of the eurozone.
Technically, consolidation of EUR / USD in the range of 1.1265-1.1485 continues. After the target has been fulfilled by 88.6% for the Shark pattern, the risks of rollback towards 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the CD wave have increased as part of its transformation into 5-0.
EUR / USD, the daily chart
