Today, market attention will be paid to the publication of preliminary data on US employment from ADP, as well as to the final decision of the Fed on monetary policy.
Global markets continue to be reeling in the wake of high expectations of a slowdown in the global economy, which is spurred on by the situation around Brexit, until the end of an obscure picture regarding the prospects for tightening the monetary policy of the Fed and the trade wars between the States and their trading partners, to which China.
On Tuesday, the British Parliament once again rejected the plan of T. May, which threatens the very possibility of a controlled exit of the United Kingdom from the EU. Until the beginning of this process, exactly two months remain, and if no agreement is reached, then we should expect serious negative consequences both for Britain and for large continental Europe.
Yesterday, a delegation from China arrived in the States for trade talks. Investors are still optimistic about the coming probable agreement between the countries, which may already be signed tomorrow.
Today, the focus will be on data on the number of new jobs in the US non-farm sector from ADP. They traditionally anticipate the publication of official figures from the Ministry of Labor, which will be released on Friday. According to the forecast, the American economy is expected to receive 170,000 new jobs in January versus growth of 271,000 in December. It can be assumed that if the value is noticeably below expectations, this will put pressure on the dollar and cause a negative trend in the US stock market. At the same time, a noticeably higher value will support the dollar and help the local stock market to grow in the wake of continuing optimism about the prospects for positive growth in the US economy.
The most important event on Wednesday will be the result of the Fed meeting on monetary policy. Markets do not expect changes in interest rates, but they will be extremely interested in the performance of J. Powell with his estimated opinion on the prospects for further growth in rates and the country's economy as a whole. If he again emphasizes the fact of a cautious approach in the process of raising interest rates or makes it clear that they can be raised only in certain economic conditions, this will put pressure on the dollar and support the demand for risky assets in the markets. If he does not clarify the picture in this regard, then it may hit the demand for shares of companies and support the rate of the US currency.
Forecast of the day:
The currency pair AUD / USD is below the level of 0.7200, the intersection of which against the background of Powell's soft rhetoric regarding the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy may lead to a local price increase to 0.7250.
The currency pair GBP / SD is above the level of 1.3075. An indistinct situation around the exit of Britain from the EU may lead to a fall in prices to 1.3000 after it crosses the level of 1.3075.
