Trading plan for 29/01/2019:
A quiet day in the financial markets ahead
On Tuesday there is a relative nervousness in the markets, which prevents from delineating a particular direction. Sentiment spoiled the allegations presented to the financial director of Huawei by the US, which may complicate the US-China trade negotiations.
Stock markets in Asia are balancing around support levels, awaiting further developments. Japanese Nikkei225 rose 0.08 percent and Chinese Shanghai Composite lost 0.14 percent. The burden for sentiment was the red session on Wall Street after the disappointing results of Caterpillar and Nvidia Corp.The predominant atmosphere prevails in the currency market. You can see modest NZD and NOK moves up, but most major currencies carry out drift. EUR / USD has landed at 1.1440, USD / JPY remains just over 109.20. GBP / USD is trading at 1.3150 awaits the evening voting on amendments to the draft Brexit agreement, which may allow breaking the deadlock in the process of approving the divorce conditions from the EU.The AUD was losing temporarily, as data on the mood of enterprises showed a deterioration. The NAB business conditions index fell in January to 2 out of 11, and the confidence index remained at 3. AUD / USD fell 30 pips to 0.7135, but it managed to retrace all losses.
On Tuesday, the 29th of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, except for Consumer Confidence data from the US in the late afternoon during the US session.
NZD/USD analysis for 29/01/2019:
The Trade Balance data from New Zealand has beat the market expectations. After the last month deficit of -955M the market participants expected an increase to 225M, but the released figure was at the level of 264M.
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country.
Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the local top at the level of 0.6868, the market has retraced almost 50% of the move up, but the low was made at the level of 0.6810 due to the Hammer like candlestick pattern. Then the price bounced through the local trend line and is on its way towards the high again. There might be some kind of a top pattern forming as the market conditions are now overbought and there is a bearish divergence forming between the price and the momentum. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.6801 and if broken, then the top is likely in place.
