One of the most important events of the week, of course, will be the next meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Already this Wednesday, the regulator will announce its interest rate decision and plans for the balance sheet.
Last Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Central Bank may revise the policy of quantitative tightening and maintain a larger balance sheet account than previously expected.
"Currently, FOMC members are considering how to convey this information to the public. If the negative economic effect of the "Shutdown" will be serious, then the Fed will be easier to justify their actions," transfers the publication.
It should be noted that on Friday the WSJ material had a significant impact on the market. In particular, the dollar index for the day sank by almost 0.8%. Today, DXY is trading near the mark of 95.8.
TD Securities analysts believe that at the next meeting the Fed is unlikely to directly announce the suspension of the balance reduction. Instead, the regulator may hint at a decrease in its rate.
The fact that the Fed is really preparing, we find out, most likely, already on January 30.
Meanwhile, the question of raising the interest rate the Fed still remains open.
While the market does not expect an increase in the cost of lending until the end of 2019, leading Wall Street banks to predict that the Fed will maintain a policy of tightening monetary policy this year.
"I think there will be one or two rate increases this year," said James Gorman, chairman of the board of directors at Morgan Stanley.
"Macroeconomic data for December, currently available, is strong enough to justify a further increase in interest rates," says Brian Moynihan, the head of Bank of America.
It is possible that at the very first meeting in 2019, the Fed will not raise the rate, leaving it at the current level of 2.5%.
It is assumed that the decision of the Federal Reserve may weaken the dollar in the short term. However, if we proceed from the fact that the last week of January often serves as a leading indicator for a whole year, then this may turn out to be a bad sign for a greenback.
According to the forecast of ING Group experts, the euro against the dollar by the end of the year may reach $ 1.20.
"This year, the growth of the EUR / USD pair will be primarily due to the weakness of the dollar, and not the strength of the euro," they noted.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com